Two recent reports surveying the impact of the Trump administration’s policies on Connecticut through two separate lenses came to a similar conclusion: the state’s economy would struggle should they be further enacted.
The Connecticut Business and Industry Association reported in April that, after reviewing the impact of the Trump tariffs on the state’s industries, Connecticut businesses will see import costs grow by more than $3 billion – and that’s after “reciprocal” tariffs were paused earlier in the month.
Despite a “pause,” 10% tariffs remain for imports across the globe, with Canadian and Mexican imports ranging from 10% to 25% and continued escalation with China putting a tariff rate with that country at 245% as of April 16.
The CBIA noted Connecticut’s manufacturing sector, which represents more than 10% of the state’s economy, would bear the brunt of the increases, due to the higher cost of both importing and exporting. Connecticut businesses imported more than $22 billion in goods in 2024, with aerospace, metals, fuels and fabricated metals leading the way for those imports.
Connecticut manufacturers, as a result, face $600 million in tariffs on Canadian and Mexican metal imports, $1 billion on Chinese manufacturing inputs and another $500 million on imports from other countries, for a total of $2.1 billion.
Imports are one issue, while exports are another entirely. Chinese counter-tariffs that continue to escalate represent well over one billion dollars in increased export costs, meaning that more than $17.38 billion in exports in key markets are at risk.
“Ultimately, these tariffs will lead to higher costs for businesses and consumers and fewer exports and market opportunities for Connecticut companies,” said CBIA President and CEO Chris DiPentima. “The uncertainty and turmoil at the federal level, where things are changing on a daily basis, is not a good thing for businesses. They can’t plan, they can’t really coordinate, they can’t really move forward 100% with their strategies when they don’t know what the environment is going to be on the national or local level.”
A second report, issued by Connecticut Voices for Children and the Immigration Research Initiative, focused on the government’s increasingly stringent crackdown on immigrants. More than one in seven Connecticut residents are immigrants, including 267,000 non-citizens and up to 150,000 undocumented immigrants.
“While we recognize that the value of the lives of all people is much more than their economic input and output, we also understand that dollars and cents are too often the thing that lawmakers pay attention to the most,” the report’s authors said. “To this end, this paper focuses on the economic risk that can be quantified, which is great in Connecticut.”
In 2022, immigrants without documentation paid more than $400 million in Connecticut taxes; deporting even 10% would cut state tax revenues by more than $40 million annually, according to the report.
Continued negative focus on immigrants and much stricter immigration enforcement stands to harm several Connecticut industries. The report said more than 5,000 farms in Connecticut, with more than 2,000 employing immigrants, would be impacted, as would: restaurants, as 7% of leisure and hospitality workers nationwide are undocumented; personal, home and office work, as more than 10% of janitors, landscapers, nail technicians and laundry workers nationally are undocumented; and construction, as 13% of all construction work nationally is done by undocumented workers and one in four Connecticut construction workers are immigrants.
Cost increases would be seen in cost of living, workforce reduction and in worsening the economic outcomes of U.S. residents, the study found.
Conversely, the study found, easing immigration restrictions to help immigrants gain legal status would infuse up to $90 million into the state’s community.
